应用商店分析公司Distimo不久前曾预测，谷歌Android Market发展迅速，而苹果App Store应用数量增长相对缓慢，所以Android Market的规模将在今年7月底时超过App Store，而德国市场调研公司research2guidance的最新报告也得出了相似的结论：Android Market将在2011年8月超越App Store。

andriod-market-insights

据该公司预测，假如这两者都保持目前的应用增长率，Android Market的应用数量有可能在8月份达到42.5万。该报告指出，Android Market在今年4月份新增了2.8万款新产品，而苹果同一时期仅增加了1.1万款应用。

不过也有观察者认为，这两个平台的应用数量并非人们关注的重点，如果一个平台充斥10万或20万极少受到关注或下载的产品，那么应用数量再多又有什么意义呢？

research2guidance的报告也指出，Android Market的高增长率并不意味着该平台一般开发商就更容易创收，“相反，一家成功的应用商店并不一定有助于普通开发者创造收益。所有分析结果均显示，包括Android Market在内的任何一家应用商店在开业几个月甚至几周后，其应用平均下载量就会开始下滑。”（本文为游戏邦/gamerboom.com编译，转载请注明来源：游戏邦）

Android To Surpass Apple’s App Store In Size By August 2011: Report

There’s no doubt Android Market will at some point offer more applications for download and/or purchase than Apple’s App Store, as the latter’s growth has been slowing down of late, while the Android application store’s growth rate has been accelerating.

In a recent report, app store analytics company Distimo forecasted that Android would surpass the App Store in size before the end of July 2011.

Another research firm, Germany-based research2guidance, corroborates Distimo’s findings; the firm forecasts Android to blow past Apple’s App Store by August 2011.

Provided current growth rates for new app uploads are maintained, research2guidance expects Android Market to reach 425,000 apps next August, effectively overtaking App Store in size.

According to the firm, Android Market added 28,000 new apps in April 2011, whereas Apple lagged behind with only 11,000 new apps.

Evidently, there’s always the question whether this matters at all. After all, the bulk of applications that are available for both platforms don’t see much traction anyway, so how relevant it is whether there are 100,000 apps or 200,000 apps that are rarely, if ever, downloaded by anyone? (note that this goes for most if not all mobile application stores)

In fact, notes research2guidance, Android Market’s high growth rate does not necessarily mean that the average mobile app developer will have a better shot at generating revenues from the store. In fact, the firm posits, the opposite may be true:

On the contrary, the success of an app store is negatively correlated to the success of an average developer. All analysis on the early months of an app store including the Android Market shows that average download numbers decrease dramatically after the first months or even weeks after the launch of the store. The long tail gets longer and longer while the top 5% gets richer and richer.

Be that as it may, Android Market’s stunning growth is worth noting, especially because it came out the gates fairly slowly.（source:techcrunch）