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2011年旧金山AppNation大会给业界的十大启示

发布时间:2011-05-05 17:22:11 Tags:,

第二届AppNation会议在旧金山召开,本次大会显示出全球手机游戏和应用发展迅速。话题涵盖从内容(游戏邦注:如游戏、视频和音乐)到应用商店、广告战略、盈利方案和搜索等方方面面,手机业及其网络机遇发人深省。对该行业系统现状,Pocket Gamer有以下10点看法:

1、平台时常发生改变

近期最受人关注的是苹果App Store刺激下载的不稳定性,公司掌控平台的力量使得其做出的改变总是符合自身利益。当然,这种行为不只限于数字销售领域。当诸如沃尔玛和特易购等传统零售商通过榨取供应商来改善财政时,也会发生同样的事情。为应对此类状况或其他情况,开发商和发行商不应过度依赖,需要适当采取措施。为最大化潜在用户,采用跨平台战略将使开发者免遭苹果等公司政策变更的影响。

apple-app-store

App Store

2、销售采取的方式

上个话题还可以继续扩展延伸。数字销售让许多传统玩家舍弃零售供应链,包括分销商、大部分发行商,当然还有零售商。然而,这并不意味着这些销售方采用的方式(游戏邦注:如销售中的促销、打折和再供应。)就此绝迹。平台掌控方仿效了大部分手法,尽管开发者抱怨平台抢夺这种发行商的职责。

然而,数字销售带来的影响也萌生出新专业领域,包括分析、刺激和跨网络促销等新促销方法、第三方社交平台和第三方跨平台应用商店。正是在这些领域,我们会不断看到这些行业新人和平台持久者就解决问题的权利或最佳解决方案展开争斗。

3、应用商店发展已达顶峰

或许业界对应用商店所视过高,有些评论员表示应用商店模式巅峰已过,未来浏览器将重新成为最重要的内容销售渠道。当然,技术变更使得浏览器和应用商店两种方式的内在优势此消彼长,二者的比拼会永远存在。

但是随着Google和Facebook甚至包括苹果大力推行HTML5,显然某些内容(游戏邦注:不仅是高质量游戏。)更适宜用此方式销售。Amazon将其Android的Appstore与标准网店整合,此举确实显现出许多优势,包括搜索、推荐和宣传。这种方法所提供的服务尽是应用商店模式的不足之处。

html5

HTML5

4、应用商店搜索问题

目前应用商店最大的不足之处是搜索。已有人多次指出,在应用商店中搜索“疯狂的鸟类”找不到《愤怒的小鸟》。在寻找单个应用和游戏时,网页式的排列方式起不到多大作用。

但是,与搜索特定用途应用相比,上述问题似乎不算什么。应用提供的功能性并未有效整合至搜索中,只能通过应用名称和描述来查找。以Quixey为首的许多公司目前正在尝试使用所谓“深层次搜索”来解决这个问题,这种方法可以将搜索词条与应用的功能性连接起来。比如,搜索“开业的餐馆”会找出Yelp之类的应用,也会自动根据用户所在的地点改善搜索结果。

这种方法能提高应用的曝光率吗?答案是否定的,这是SEO需要解决的问题,有可能让行业有所发展。

5、集团队成员之力思考对策

由于设备间存在差异,开发商抱怨曝光率是导致失败的另一个原因。别期待任何人能够帮你完成这些事情,有人对此评述道:“开发商需要自行营销应用,就像法官靠自己说服公众支持。”

6、智能手机用户量不等同于收入

尽管该行业公司深受市场分析师赞赏,风险投资者和CEO们指望能够出售他们的公司,智能手机业务的迅速增长并不意味着赚钱变得更为容易。

很显然,每月增加的数千万新智能手机用户,其购买应用的习惯确实不像iPhone和Android系统设备早期的使用者。比如,iPhone获得Verizon的支持并未像预期那样令App Store销售额飙升,Android未来的增长将主要依靠中国和印度等国的廉价手机。

Verizon

由于应用内容逐渐趋于免费,尤其是游戏方面,开发商可以用高下载量和活跃用户作为吹嘘的资本,同时努力攫取利润。现实很残忍,单款应用需要超过1千万的下载量,公司需要应用有5千万的下载量才能引起人们的关注。

7、尽量在某领域做到最好

市场成熟后,在这个庞大却难以从中盈利的受众数中,可以利用两种相互对立的运营方式——涉足各方向(游戏邦注:即成为大型发行商)或专攻某个领域。对多数开发商而言,后者是唯一的选择。AppNation特别指出成为某个类别领头羊的价值,尤其是在这个跨平台世界中。当然,技巧在于正确选择欲控制的领域。据观察,现实赛车、配对、足球(包括美式和英式)和物理类均已有作品统治。

8、东方市场态势

业界通常以极端和混乱的言辞来形容中国,在这个拥有十几个规模堪比第一世界国家城市的第三世界国家中,既有终生未见的机遇,也可能让研发成果在数分钟内土崩瓦解。事实似乎正是如此,提及与中国公司的合作以及返利的限制,运营的确存在明显的障碍。有人这样说道:“留在中国就需要付出代价。”但是尽管无人知道Android手机在中国的迅速崛起后果如何,但此系统确实撼动整个市场。

但是,日本发生的变革可能更令人感到兴奋。长久以来,日本都是全球移动网络的先驱者,但iPhone和Android(游戏邦注:比如三星的手机)的销售正动摇整个成熟且获利颇丰的市场。考虑到这种情形,DeNA和GREE各自花3.03亿美元和1.04亿美元收购智能社交网络ngmoco和OpenFeint,此举可以看作是资金雄厚的公司惧怕二分天下的局面被打破的防御性措施。

OpenFeint-logo

OpenFeint

9、社交手机网络

继续上述话题,现在可以说社交手机游戏平台第一波已完结。OpenFeint和ngmoco是两个最为成功的公司,它们的投资者也赚了大笔钱。其余公司中,AGON Online已支离破碎,Chillingo的Crystal仍然是个未充分挖掘的私有系统,Scoreloop的运营也鲜有成果。像木瓜移动之类的新晋商家也逐渐浮现。这些技术都没有解决社交手机玩家的问题。

现在看来,成就和排行榜确实成为所有游戏的标准要素。如果考虑到个人体验再加上邀请某些现有朋友加入其中,是手机社交最粗糙的手法。如果DeNA和GREE的并购不算枉费大笔资金的话,下一代社交手机游戏应该做得更好,并能够真正产生盈利。

10、社交游戏巨头Zynga的关注

少从业务运营方面考虑,多从观察角度想想问题。社交游戏巨擘Zynga在AppNation期间收购某手机游戏工作室,需要澄清的是,此举与大会无关。毫无疑问,公众或许会注意到Zynga在过去1年内收购了十几个此类公司。

Zynga收购英国工作室Wonderland是因为其开发ngmoco游戏《GodFinger》,此前也收购ngmoco上《We Rule》的开发者Newtoy。上述两款游戏首次开发完成并发布后,长久以来由ngmoco自行运营。因而,上述举动表明Zynga最终将在移动freemium领域(游戏邦注:freemium销售模式指在免费基础上吸引大量用户,然后提供有附加价值的服务给高级用户,对这些功能收费。)有大动作。(本文为游戏邦/gamerboom.com编译,转载请注明来源:游戏邦)

10 things we learned from AppNation 2011

In only its second incarnation, the AppNation conference, held in San Francisco, certainly demonstrated the breadth of the manic activity occurring in the world of mobile games and apps. Ranging across topics such as content – games, video and music – to app stores, advertising strategies, monetisation options, search, and more, it, and its networking opportunities, provided plenty of fuel for thought. So here are ten points we think say something about the current state of the ecosystem.

1. The platform always corrupts

A general observation but one brought into specific focus by the continuing uncertainties over download incentivisation on the Apple App Store, a platform holder’s power over its platform means change will always tend to be in its favour. Of course, this sort of behaviour isn’t limited to digital distribution. The same thing occurs with physical retailers such as Walmart and Tesco as they squeeze their supply chain in ways that improve their balance sheet. For that reason – and many others – developers and publishers shouldn’t take an all or nothing approach. As well as maximising your potential audience, a cross platform strategy will limit your vulnerability to the mercurial attitudes of Apple, Google, RIM, Nokia, Microsoft, Amazon etc.

2. Whose line is it anyway?

There’s a broader point to be made on the previous subject. Digital distribution has removed many of the traditional players from the retail supply chain – notably distributors, the vast majority of publishers and, of course, retailers. However this doesn’t mean the tasks undertaken by these specialists – ranging from sales and marketing to promotion, discounting and resupply have disappeared. Most have been taken over by the platform holder, while the biggest complaint for developers concerns discoverability; something they would have previously relied on publishers to undertake.

Equally, the disruption caused by digital distribution has created new areas of expertise; analytics, new promotion methods such as incentivisation and cross promotional networks, third party social platforms and even third party cross platform app stores. And it’s here where we will continue to see battles between these new players and the platforms holders over who has the rights or the best solutions to solve these problems.

3. The app store has peaked

But maybe we’re too hung up on app stores anyway. Some commentators are arguing we’ve passed the high point of the app store model, and the pendulum is now swinging back towards the browser as being the most important channel for content distribution in future. Of course, the browser versus app store debate will always be with us as changes in technology make the inherent advantages of each approach more (or less) significant.

But with HTML5 being massively pushed by the likes of Google, Facebook and even Apple, it’s clear that certain content – although not necessarily high quality games – will be better distributed this way. Indeed, Amazon’s integration of its Appstore for Android within its standard web storefront demonstrates the many advantages, in terms of search, recommendation and even billing, this approach delivers, all of which are weakness of the app model.

4. Here I am

One of the biggest current deficiencies with app stores is search. As has been pointed out many times, an app store search for ‘mad fowl’ won’t get you Angry Birds. Taking a web-style page rank approach doesn’t work well when you’re looking for a singular result.

However the problem is more general than just searching for specific apps. The functionality offered by apps isn’t well integrated into search, which only access an app’s name and its description. Several companies, notably start up Quixey, are now attempting to tackle this problem using a so-called ‘deep search’ approach that enables search terms to connect with the functionality offered by apps. For example, this would solve the problem of searching for ‘open restaurants’, by launching an app such as Yelp, also automatically using functionality such as your location to improve the quality of the results.

Would it solve discoverability? No. It would shift the problem to SEO; perhaps moving us half a step forward.

5. Where are your groupies?

As with device fragmentation, developers complaining about discoverability is just another admission of failure. Don’t expect anyone to do your job for you, or as one panelist put it, “You need to market your app just like bands build a fanbase.”

6. Large numbers aren’t enough

Although beloved by market analysts, venture capitalists and CEOs looking to sell their companies, the explosive growth of the smartphone business doesn’t mean it’s becoming any easier to make money.

Indeed, it’s clear that the tens of millions of new smartphone owners every month don’t have anything like the same app buying patterns as the early adopters of iPhone and Android. For example, the availability of the iPhone on Verizon didn’t boast App Store sales as expected, while much of the future growth of Android is going to happen with very cheap handsets in countries such as China and India.

Combined with a broad industry switch to free-to-play content, especially for games, and developers can boast of high download numbers and active users, while struggling generate meaningful revenues. Brutally put, it seems that individual titles need 10+ million downloads while companies need 50+ million downloads to be noticed.

7. Be the best

As always happens as a market matures, there are two extreme approaches businesses can take to take advantage of a large, hard-to-monetise audience; become an aggregator (or large publisher), or specialise. The latter is the only option for most developers, with VC panelists at AppNation, in particular, pointing to the value of being a category leader, especially in a cross platform world. Of course, the trick is to choose the correct niche to attempt to dominate. We’d suggest the realistic vehicle racing, match-3, football (American and soccer), and physics trajectory categories are already well supplied.

8. Eastern disruption

China is often spoken about in extreme and confused terms. It’s either a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity, or a place where your IP will be reversed engineered in minutes: a global threat to US economic and military power or a third world country containing a dozen first world city states. The truth seems to be a bit of everything. There are clear obstacles to business in terms of the need to partner with Chinese companies and restriction on revenue repatriation. “What pays in China stays in China,” as one panelist put it. Additionally, China Mobile’s stranglehold across much of the industry limits innovation. Yet the disruption caused by the rapid adoption of Android smartphones is shaking things up; even if no one knows how it will all play out.

Perhaps more exciting though are the changes occurring in Japan. Long the global leader in mobile networks, if not handsets, the sales of iPhone and Android – notably Samsung devices – is shaking up an otherwise mature and incredibly lucrative market. Placed in that light, the $303 million and $104 million deals by DeNA and GREE respectively for smartphone social networks ngmoco and OpenFeint could be seen as defensive moves by cash-rich players worried their duopoly is about to be broken apart.

9. Will you be my friend?

Continuing the theme, we can now say the first wave of social mobile gaming platforms is over. OpenFeint and ngmoco were the two most successful players and their investors have cashed out big. As for the rest, AGON Online went bust, Chillingo’s Crystal remains effectively an underused proprietary system, while Scoreloop’s business is as a white label play for carriers. New players such as Papaya Mobile have also appeared. The broader question concerning did any of these technologies actually make us more social mobile gamers remains unanswered though.

Certainly achievements and leaderboards are now seen as standard components in all games. Yet if personal experience is anything to go by, this, combined with inviting a few existing friends into my social graph, is – at best – the most coarse implementation of mobile sociability. Social mobile gaming 2.0 will have to do much better, as well as actually being able to generate some revenues, if DeNA and GREE’s deals aren’t to be seen as massively overpriced.

10. The kraken awakes

Less a business point, more an observation. During AppNation, but unrelated to it, social gaming giant Zynga bought another mobile game studio. No surprise there you might think – it’s bought over a dozen in the past 12 months.

The symbolism of its acquisition of UK studio Wonderland however was that it developed ngmoco’s GodFinger game; Zynga previously bought Newtoy, developer of ngmoco’s We Rule. Both titles have long been run as services internally by ngmoco following their initial development and launch, so there won’t be an issue in terms of player services. Nevertheless, it does suggest Zynga will finally be doing something significant in the mobile freemium space – and that in itself is significant. (Source: Pocket Gamer)

 


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