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观察者质疑IDC预测结果,称Android仍需解决多种问题

发布时间:2011-04-06 14:16:59 Tags:,,,

谷歌Android在2008年10月登台后曾一度被边缘化,但2009年11月份采用了Android操作系统的摩托罗拉Droid手机却迅速吸引了大众眼球,Android平台也由此开始一路攀向高峰。但是,诺基亚、Palm、RIM和微软等公司在移动领域今非昔比的现状却足以证明,登上冠军宝座与守住王位是两回事。

市场调研公司IDC公司最近预测,Android在2015年仍将阵守手机平台的最高峰。

idc_2015_marketshare

idc_2015_marketshare

但socialtimes的一名撰稿人却认为这个结论有待推敲,因为Android平台仍面临一些亟待解决的严重问题。其一就是Android Market长期以来的管理无序。虽然最近已经过重新设计,它的功能比以前已有较大改观,但来势更猛的亚马逊Appstore有可能才是Android应用开发商创收的真正渠道。至今为止,用户在Android Market下载的应用多为免费产品。

即便现实情况并非如此,Android也还是存在另一个更为棘手的问题:平台分裂性。在游戏邦看来,Android智能手机(以及平板电脑)的广泛分布,一直就是该平台最大的市场竞争筹码之一,但同时也是它的最大软肋之一。因为不同设备制造商常会推出采用旧版Android操作系统的新设备,却并不及时对其系统进行升级。这种不同硬件配置、操作系统版本不统一的情况,造成了让用户和应用开发商头痛的平台分裂性问题。Android用户常发现有些应用程序不能在手机上流畅地运行,或者根本无法兼容自己所有的Android设备,而开发商则不得不为了支持多个平台、不同型号的Android移动设备,而陷入开发多个应用版本的麻烦中。

《财富》杂志的一名作者也于日前撰文表示,Android开发商认为该平台的生态圈较为混乱无序。

Android-Fragmentation survey

Android-Fragmentation survey

这篇文章的调查指出,Android平台的分裂性主要体现在5个方面:

·移动设备分散

·应用商店分化

·应用开发难度较大(大于iOS平台)

·应用曝光率较低(低于iOS和黑莓)

·计费服务不完善

游戏邦认为如果谷歌及其设备制造商不尽快着手解决这些问题,也许IDC的2015年预测将被彻底改写。(本文为游戏邦/gamerboom.com编译,转载请注明来源:游戏邦)

Developers Say Android is a Mess: Fragmented, No App Visibility, Revenue Issues

Google’s Android mobile operating system is sitting on top of the mobile world. After sitting on the sidelines since its October 2008 introduction, Motorola’s Droid gave Android a much needed second chance when it launched and quickly captured the public’s attention and cash in November 2009. However, as Nokia, Palm, RIM, and Microsoft can tell you, getting to the top and staying there are two different things.

One projection (from IDC) shows Android remaining at the top of the heap through 2015.

In 2015: Android Rules, Symbian is Gone, iPhone is Flat, & Windows Phone is #2?

However, Frank McPherson and I have noted a number of serious problems Android has that could topple it. One problem is that the Android Market was a mess for a long time. Its recent redesign helped. But, it may be Amazon’s AppStore that is finally able to provide Android developers with an actual revenue stream. To date, the vast majority of Android app downloads are free ones. But, even if that is the case, Android has one more big problem: Platform fragmentation. The wide variety of available Android smartphones (and more recently, tablets) has been one of its marketing strengths. However, it is also a weakness because manufacturers have released new devices with older versions of Android and have not been updating the devices. The combination of different hardware configurations and multiple versions of Android has caused fragmentation problems for both users and developers. Android users find that some apps may not run well or even at all on their device. Developers have to deal with supporting what amounts to multiple platforms. Here’s a small sampling of the fragmentation issues Frank and I have noted right here on Social Times.

2010.09.29Real World Examples Of Android Fragmentation

2010.11.09: Fragment-ier Android Fragmentation: Android OS 2.3 (Gingerbread) Available Soon?

2011.01.11: Google Unsatisfied with Android Fragmentation Confusion Creating Separate 2.x (phone) & 3.x (tablet) Versions

2011.01.27: Skype for Android 1.0.3 Provides Fixes & Highlights Platform Fragmentation Issues

2011.03.17: Google Android Market Data Indicates Fragmentation & No OS 2.3 Adoption

Fortune’s Philip Elmer-DeWitt noted today that Android developers are now speaking out that:

Android is a mess, say developers

The survey of developers reported in the article surfaces all of the issues Frank and I have been talking about for over a year now:

- Device fragmentation

- Store fragmentation

- Ease of development

- App visibility

- Ability to get paid

If Google and its manufacturing partners do not get these issues revolved soon, I predict IDC’s projections for Android’s 2015 market leadership will be dead wrong.(source:socialtimes


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