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观察者论述IDC关于WP7与iOS 2015年预测结果的两面性

发布时间:2011-04-01 11:18:20 Tags:,,,

有人认为微软和诺基亚的联姻已经初见成效——IDC预测Windows Phone 7在2015年将取代苹果iOS,成为智能手机市场的亚军。

而2011年的智能手机市场冠军Android,则将继续保持强劲发展势头,在2015年占据45.4%的市场份额。

游戏邦获悉IDC的相关预测结果还包括:在2011年的智能手机市场,Android市场份额将达39.5%,Symbian是20.9%,iOS则是15.7%,黑莓是14.9%,WP7/Windows Mobile总共5.5%。

但到了2015年,这一形势将发生明显转变,Android仍将稳居榜首,市场份额攀升到45.4%;而WP7则以20.9%的比例坐上第二把交椅,iOS会以15.3%的比例居于季军,黑莓是13.7%,Symbian则将惨跌到0.2%。

IDC的预测报告出炉后引起了业内的关注和议论,不少人认为IDC这个结论缺乏根据,technewsworld网站的一名撰稿人Chris Maxcer最近也对此发表了自己的看法,他认为IDC预测结果既有其根据,同时也存在脱离实际的情况。以下是游戏邦编译的相关内容:

Windows-Phone-7-vs-iOS-4-Cmparison

Windows-Phone-7-vs-iOS-4-Cmparison

WP7有可能成为黑马

1.WP7确实还不赖。尽管微软与诺基亚的联姻尚未诞出任何一部WP7诺基亚手机,其市场出货量更是无据可考。但据作者的观察,已有不少业内媒体也不得不承认WP7确实很出色,有一些关注微软的行家已经成了WP7的拥趸。虽然WP7尚不足以让iPhone用户变心,但我们相信抢夺iOS或者Android用户,并不能帮助WP7分到更大的市场蛋糕。

2.微软重视手机操作系统。在沦入一段低迷之后,微软已经意识到拥有强大的手机操作系统的重要性,所以不惜抛出10亿美元,与领先的设备制造商诺基亚结成了战略同盟。除此之外,游戏邦还认为微软在手机操作系统的市场营销上,也同样不吝砸下重金,这一点从本周一ABC电视剧《Castle》中的产品植入广告就可以看出端倪,微软极有可能继续在这一方面大作文章。

3.用户规模持续扩大。IDC预计智能手机在2010年的出货量是3.03亿部,而在2011年将增长至4.5亿部。这就说明智能手机还有很大的市场空间,在这个新兴市场领域,微软当然可以抓住机遇从中分得一杯羹。

4.诺基亚可能是一张王牌。诺基亚在美国智能手机市场已经丧失主权,但还是得承认它仍能制造一些世界顶级的智能手机。另外,诺基亚在全球的影响力仍然存在,它与运营商的合作关系更是一大优势,而且该公司也不乏危机意识,正致力于通过改革重振旗鼓。为了在竞争中生存下来,诺基亚也许将不再沉溺于过去的光辉岁月,会比以往再加卖力地努力。

5.微软或进行业务整合。现在离2015年还有4年,这段时间足够微软在业务整合上发力,打造一个强大的WP7平台。当然,这只是作者的一种猜测。虽然iPhone也有“高度客制化”的IT部门,但IT精英们考虑的仍然是商业效益。

苹果不可能被轻易被打败

上文所述的是IDC预测结果的可能性,它之所以只是一种“可能”,而不是“必然”,主要原因就是苹果的实力仍然不容小觑。

1.苹果一直不乏进取心和创新性。所有人都得承认,苹果一直就是创新的领航者。苹果并不总是发明全新的产品,但却极其擅长改造产品。在4年之后,我们可以预见iPhone 4在其后辈面前有可能光芒尽失。

2.不可低估苹果品牌知名度和忠诚度。苹果仍是许多人梦寐以求的品牌,许多用户购买Android手机并不非偏爱Android,而是因为这种手机更平价,销售渠道更丰富,WP7的情况也将如此。向用户提供手机的运营商,会通过调整价格刺激用户购买手机,如果苹果也可以提供更多的iPhone销售渠道,相信用户也会选择苹果手机。苹果品牌标志的辨识度很高,但WP7手机即使植入了电视剧《Castle》,我们也还是难以一眼看出它是什么品牌的硬件和软件产品。但这一点对苹果来说根本不是问题,苹果一向深谙此道。比如说,大家看到白色的耳塞,第一个想到的当然就是苹果。

3.苹果或推iPhone销售新模式。如果苹果可以提供更实惠的iPhone(AT&T销售的49美元iPhone 3GS当然很不错,但还是不如iPhone 4好)购买成本,那么苹果是可以虏获大量的功能性手机用户,因为这类用户对产品的需求总会升级,再上一个档次。假如苹果大量发销iPhone nano,相信IDC到时候就得纠正自己的调查数据了。

4.iOS生态圈的影响力依旧。苹果在个人电脑领域还只算是小众市场竞争者,但在平板电脑战场完全是统帅。另外,苹果PC用户基本上都会采用苹果智能手机和iOS移动设备,所以这种将PC与智能手机操作系统结合起来的策略正在贬值,从而影响了其PC市场份额。与此同时,苹果App Store却胜过其他任何一家应用商店——对一般用户来说更是如此。功能性手机用户会转向一个更方便省事的iOS平台吗?游戏邦认为只要价格合理,这种情况完全有可能发生。

5.与企业客户的关系将日益成熟。用户的支持一直是苹果与其他公司打交道的重要筹码。到了2015年,苹果与其他公司的关系也许将渐入佳境。假如苹果推出有利于企业客户的举措,或者开发特定的商务型iPhone,这也有可能改写IDC的预测结果。

关于IDC预测的其他解读内容:

我们还可以从另一角度来看IDC的预测,并得出其他结论:WP7也许只能通过诺基亚的帮助,抢食Symbian市场份额来实现自己的追求;或者到2015年时,WP7只是在市场上占有一席之地,但并不会有太大作为。另外,就算苹果市场份额果然下滑了0.5%,它的iOS智能手机销售额也仍在增长,它还是可以获得不俗的利润率。

另外,假如苹果坚守细分市场,这更有助于铁杆苹果粉丝保持自身的独特性,他们会很拥护苹果的这一立场,而这也正是苹果及其粉丝乐见的结果。(本文为游戏邦/gamerboom.com编译,转载请注明来源:游戏邦)

iOS vs. WinPho: 2 Visions of the Future

If two large companies create a marriage out of desperation and throw in US$1 billion dowry, can it not only survive but also thrive? According to a recent IDC forecast report, the answer is yes: The Microsoft (Nasdaq: MSFT) and Nokia (NYSE: NOK) sweetheart deal in which Nokia will build smartphones running Microsoft’s Windows Phone 7 will result in a second-place market share position by 2015, eclipsing Apple’s (Nasdaq: AAPL) iOS.

Android, which is the projected smartphone OS market share leader in 2011, will continue its rampage and own 45.4 percent of the market share in 2015 — according to IDC, of course.

IDC reports that the 2011 smartphone market share will be 39.5 percent for Android, 20.9 percent for Symbian, 15.7 percent for iOS, 14.9 percent for BlackBerry, and 5.5 percent for Windows Phone 7/Windows Mobile.

But by 2015, the percentages shift to 45.4 for Android, 20.9 for Windows Phone 7, 15.3 for iOS, 13.7 for BlackBerry, and Symbian will be essentially dead with less than 1 percent market share.

Talk About Stirring the Fanboy Pot!

The publicly reported portions of the IDC forecast isn’t particularly detailed. While my gut reaction was to laugh it off as utter nonsense, I’ve come to realize that IDC’s view here represents at a least a possible future. Here’s why:

Windows Phone 7 might not be half bad. While it’s hard to find real sales figures and uptake for the Microsoft mobile OS, I’ve seen a number of reviews that grudgingly acknowledge that it’s pretty good. Some Microsoft-focused professionals, of course, are already happy to become “fanboy” influencers. For iPhone users, there’s nothing compelling enough to generate a switch, but enticing iOS (or even Android users) isn’t necessary for Windows Phone 7 to make big share gains.

Microsoft understands how important a mobile OS is. After a slumber, it finally seems as if Microsoft understands that it needs a viable (and popular) mobile phone OS. The $1 billion-plus deal with Nokia nails down a quality manufacturer that Microsoft can count on, and there’s some evidence that Microsoft is willing to spend real marketing dollars to push its OS. On Monday night’s episode of “Castle” on ABC, for instance, not only did Microsoft sponsor a pretty good ad, but it also had yet another product placement.

Lots of growth available. IDC predicts that smartphone vendors will ship 450 million units in 2011 compared to 303 million in 2010. That means there are lots of new customers out there. In the burgeoning smartphone market, Microsoft will be like a game show contestant entering a wind tunnel full of cash. Opportunity is out there, moving, but entirely catchable.

Nokia may be a very powerful wildcard. Never mind that Nokia was recently failing to capture even a sliver of U.S. smartphone mindshare — despite producing some of the world’s first and best smartphones. Today and tomorrow are new days. Nokia has a worldwide presence, relationships with carriers, and I’m guessing the company sees the writing on the wall and is hungry. To survive, they’ll need to forget past successes and do everything better than ever before.

Business integration. Four years is a long time. Microsoft may come up with some seriously awesome business integration. I’m just saying, it’s possible. And while the iPhone has “consumerized” IT departments, IT pros still think in business terms.

On the Other Hand …

Now here’s why I think the IDC report is just a possible reality … and not even necessarily the most likely version of our smartphone future.

Apple is a moving target. Face it, the company is an innovator. Apple doesn’t always invent entirely new products, but Apple is damn good at reinventing them. In four years, we might think of our iPhone 4 as a kludgy little paperweight.

Brand recognition and desire. Apple still has a heckuva lot of brand recognition and desire. Many Android phones aren’t bought because the consumer wants Android. They’re bought due to availability. The same will go for Windows Phone 7. A customer’s carrier will offer the unit, they’ll have pricing incentives, and the consumer will walk away with it. If Apple can offer the iPhone to more outlets, consumers will choose it. The Apple brand is iconic and recognizable. Even the product placements on “Castle” for Windows Phone 7 … it’s hard to recognize the hardware and even the software as anything special. That’s rarely a problem for Apple, and Apple knows how to keep that rolling. White earbud headphones … case in point is all.

New models of iPhone. If Apple can either offer very cheap acquisition costs for iPhones as feature-rich as the iPhone 4 — AT&T’s (NYSE: T) $49 iPhone 3GS is pretty good, but not good enough — Apple can pick up a lot of the feature phone market as those customers naturally upgrade. Offer an iPhone nano, and boom, the numbers game will change.

The power of the iOS ecosystem. Sure, Apple is only a niche player in the PC world, but it’s a dominator in the tablet world. In addition, its smartphone and iOS devices work with PC users. So the power of PC operating system integration with a smartphone is becoming devalued, which tends to mitigate the benefit of PC market share. Meanwhile, the iOS App Store is still much better than competing app stores — particularly for regular consumers. Will feature phone users gravitate toward the ease of the iOS world? If the price is right, I think they might.

Apple is slowly becoming better with businesses. Apple’s enterprise plays have been driven by consumers. By 2015, might Apple start playing nice with the business world? If Apple made enterprise-friendly moves or a special business iPhone, it might change IDC’s forecast.

Another Way to Read IDC’s Forecast

There is another way to read IDC’s forecast, and it has nothing to do with storm clouds for Apple: Windows Phone 7 will only make stunning gains through the help of Nokia as it eats up previous Symbian market share. And come 2015, Windows Phone 7 may simply have market share … but only manage to hang onto a sliver of mind share pie. Either way, even if Apple’s market share actually drops half a percent on the road to 2015, Apple will still enjoy increasing iOS smartphone sales, and presumably, maintain excellent profitability.

Besides, if Apple maintains a niche position, hardcore Apple fans will get to keep their identities without becoming quite so mainstream, which might actually be the most healthy scenario for Apple and Apple lovers in 2015. (source:technewsworld


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