两周前，任天堂总裁岩田聪在GDC主题演说中矛头直指目前手机和社交游戏的趋势给传统游戏平台形成的价值观带来的威胁，这些传统平台包括任天堂的Wii和DS。应该指出的是，这些平台专用软件的售价为20美元至50美元。与手机应用程序和Facebook等社交媒体网站上的免费游戏或中等价格游戏相比，价格高出许多。

虽然过去NPD调查通常不关注这些非传统游戏市场的状况，但目前其发展态势已不容忽视。岩田聪给开发者提出的警告或许契合任天堂公司的利益及其选择的发展战略，但是游戏业的计划似乎与之并不相同。

当Wedbush Securities分析师Michael Pachter表示iPhone和iPod Touch等设备的发展对任天堂的业务构成威胁，岩田聪高调回应道任天堂和苹果设备分属不同的消费群体。如果任天堂的平台和iPhone的消费者各不相同，那么为何岩田聪要呼吁开发者保持软件的价值取向呢？很显然，苹果手机平台归根结底还是威胁到了传统游戏。

Nintendo 3DS

而且当任天堂推出其新掌机3DS时，会明显感觉到这股威胁。即便3D效果和独占软件势必最初会推动3DS的销售量，但250美元的掌机价格和40美元的平均软件价格还是会让人对其产生质疑。

然而，3DS也有自己的方式同手机展开角逐。任天堂声称3DS用户将可以通过网络连接来购买软件（如同目前任天堂DSi上的DSiWare），并且该设备支持Netflix电影播放。尽管如此，在通过网络渠道销售软件方面，相对来说任天堂还是个新手，尤其是与其视频游戏业最大竞争对手——微软和索尼相比。每个公司将业务扩展至这些领域时都会面临挑战，任天堂也不例外。

很明显，价格将成为挑战之一。提及岩田聪的主题演讲时，Pachter将此比作：某唱片公司行政人员向歌手说明iTunes是个糟糕的产品，所有人需要团结起来确保消费者花20美元购买CD唱片，而不是花1美元购买每首歌曲。如果游戏业恰如这个类比所述，那么任天堂3DS及其软件依然会畅销。毕竟，时至今日唱片依然销售火爆。但游戏邦认为，任天堂DS类产品的前景或许并不光明。

应该注意到，不单单只有掌机存在价格问题。3年来整个游戏业软件的平均价格维持在39美元至41美元之间，而在这期间软件的销售量减少了13%，影响到游戏业整体收益。这些软件大部分适用于主机平台，而并非掌机。

点卡销售增长图

当然，主机软件销售量的减少可能还存在其他原因。当问及手机和社交游戏是否会威胁到主机游戏时，Pachter认为目前的影响并不大，因为某些游戏在应用程序市场中还未发现替代品，但总有一天会出现的。这个观点或许存在偏差。此刻微软和索尼，即便是任天堂都通过其在线销售减少软件包零售业务。虽然某些在线销售行为看似是对零售的补充，但游戏邦觉得事实上这些销售正在不断取代零售。

据NPD集团分析师Anita Frazier所述，2011年2月点卡占配件收益的22%，这些点卡可用于购买上文提及的在线商店产品。也就是说，玩家用于购买游戏、电影和DLC的总金额达5650万美元。与2010年2月相比，配件销售额提高将近4700万美元，仅点卡销售便增加了1930万美元。而与去年相比，软件收益下滑3200万美元，掌机和Wii市场表现不佳。此外，NPD集团统计的零售数据并不包含玩家直接通过信用卡或借记卡购买的金额。

即便某些游戏在网上的售价与零售价格相同（如《质量效应2》在PlayStation Store的售价为60美元），但此类商店大部分游戏的售价在20美元左右或更少。事实上主机都有自己的应用商店，经年累月，这些很可能影响到消费者的习惯。（本文为游戏邦/gamerboom.com编译，转载请注明来源：游戏邦）

Analysis: Mobile’s Growing Impact On Handheld Gaming Market Price Tags

During his GDC keynote two weeks ago, Nintendo president Satoru Iwata spoke in strong terms about the current trends in mobile and social games and how they threaten the value proposition traditionally offered by platforms like the the Nintendo Wii and DS. Specifically, these platforms host software that ranges in price from $20 – $50, far above the free or modest prices charged for applications on smartphones and on social media sites like Facebook.

While we typically don’t address these non-traditional markets in our NPD reviews, the time is fast approaching when those markets will be impossible to exclude from the conversation. Iwata’s warning to developers may suit Nintendo and its chosen strategy, but the industry appears to have other plans.

Indeed, when analysts like Michael Pachter of Wedbush Securities suggested that devices like the iPhone and iPod Touch were a threat to Nintendo’s business, Iwata famously replied that Nintendo’s devices and Apple’s devices “appeal to different consumers.” If Nintendo’s platforms and the iPhone appeal to different consumers, then why the impassioned appeal to keep the value of software high? Clearly, Apple’s mobile platforms and smartphones generally have turned out to be a threat after all.

And Nintendo may feel that threat most acutely now, as it launches its new handheld, the 3DS. While we believe the 3D effects and exclusive software will certainly help push the 3DS initially, we remain dubious about the system for both the $250 system price and standard $40 software price.

Yet the 3DS will have a means for competing with mobile devices. Nintendo is readying a storefront that will allow 3DS users to buy software over a network connection (like DSiWare on the Nintendo DSi now), and has announced that Netflix movie streaming will be available on the system. However, Nintendo is relatively new to the distribution of software through an online channel, especially compared to its most immediate rivals in the video game industry, Microsoft and (to a lesser extent) Sony. Each company has had its share of challenges expanding into these areas, and Nintendo will be no exception.

Clearly, pricing will be one of those challenges. When asked about Iwata’s keynote, Wedbush’s Pachter drew an analogy with “a record company executive speaking to a group of recording artists and saying that iTunes was a terrible model” and “that they all band together to make sure that consumers buy only album length CDs for $20 instead of individual songs for $1”. If we accept the analogy, then Nintendo’s 3DS and its software will likely still sell well – there are, after all, albums that sell well even today – but the prospects for a Nintendo DS-like hit seem significantly dimmer.

The problem with pricing, we would argue, is not just on handhelds. The industry as a whole has maintained an average price for software of $39 – $41 for three years and during that period software unit sales have declined by 13 percent, leading to a decline in overall revenue. Most of those software units are for consoles, not handhelds.

Are console software sales also being undercut by another source? Possibly. When asked, Pachter offered that he doesn’t “see as great a threat to console games, since there is nothing analogous [to the App Store] available on the television” but that “it’s coming some day.” We respectfully disagree. We believe that at this very moment Microsoft and Sony and, yes, even Nintendo are undercutting their own packaged software business with their online storefronts: the Xbox Live Marketplace, the PlayStation Store, and the Wii Shop Channel. While some sales on those services are likely to be additive – money spent on top of what one would already have spent – we think it is likely that those purchases are actually substituting for retail purchases on an increasing scale.

According to NPD Group analyst Anita Frazier, 22 percent of accessory segment revenue at retail in February 2011 was from points cards, like those used to purchase content on the aforementioned online storefronts. That works out to $56.5 million available for buying games, movies, and DLC. (See figure below.) In fact, while the accessory segment saw a nearly $47 million year-over-year increase in February, $19.3 million (or 41 percent) of that increase came just from the rising sales of points cards. (In the same comparison, software revenue fell by $32 million, albeit much it lost in the handheld and Wii segments.) The NPD Group retail figures moreover do not take into account purchases charged directly to credit cards or debit cards registered with these console services.

While there are some games on these services with full retail pricing (for example, Mass Effect 2 is sold on the PlayStation Store at $60), the majority of the content on these stores is priced at $20 or less. In effect, the consoles already have their own App Stores, and those are quite likely affecting consumer expectations with each passing month. (Source: Gamasutra)