Steam、XBLA、PSN等在线平台会不会把游戏价格降到99美分？不少人在谈到Steam、XBLA、PSN当前的市场状况时，都有这样的担忧（这是可以理解的）。据游戏邦了解，有人认为这些平台也会像手机平台一样对自身未来竞争力失去信心，把游戏价格降至99美分。如果游戏价值受损，游戏内容贬值，那么我们将再也无法体验《创世纪》（Ultima）或者其他大制作游戏，从此只能与《翼飞冲天》（Tiny Wings）和《愤怒的小鸟》（Angry Birds）之类的游戏为伴。

tiny-wings

第一，坦白说，《愤怒的小鸟》和《翼飞冲天》我都很喜欢，可能会更喜欢《翼飞冲天》，但这不是重点。

第二，如果谈到“可下载游戏”，我指的是Steam（和Impulse/D2D） 、XBLA和PSN平台上的游戏。是的，我知道，iOS也有可下载的游戏，但这不在本文讨论范围内。

第三，我认为，未来可下载游戏不会出现价格底线的竞争，且听我细细道来。

在iPhone问世之前的移动设备游戏主要是指Nintendo、GB/GBA和DS平台上的游戏。据游戏邦了解，它们的定价低于AAA巨型单机游戏，售价大概在20-30美元左右。这个游戏市场也很庞大，团队规模都在10人以下（平均7人？），开发周期只要几个月，因此十分高产。

假设你开了一个小公司，专接外包工作，那么为了保证公司持续运营，你就得不断地推销自己，除非你能够通过原始IP开发新的游戏，并取得不错的销量。

偶尔也有些游戏要经过较长的开发周期，出自较大团队之手，但这类游戏通常都要依靠更大规模的公司或者强大的IP才能卖得更好。有些人会把资金投在长远项目，但如果运气不佳就会以失败收场。

除了售价之外，可下载游戏的发展之路是不是很像今天的iOS游戏？相似的团队规模、开发周期。但据游戏邦了解，可下载游戏更易获得知名度，团队规模更庞大，虽然它们的团队规模正在缩小，但依旧是iOS游戏团队的2倍左右。

真正发生变化的只是游戏售价，这些游戏公司依旧和原来运营得一样理想（这就是说，完全依靠原始的IP很难招揽到足够的业务，但在这一点上，这一领域并没有多大改变），他们的游戏仍保持原来的吸引力和用户规模。

这表明，游戏内容扣除其高质量画面效果开发费用、平台运营的管理费用，尽管面临走向99美分的竞争压力，但它们的实际成本很可能仍接近于5美元。

接下来让我们看看可下载游戏。

这些游戏是从市场上售价60美元的AAA游戏衍生而来的，后者的制作团队规模更大（动辄就是100人以上），预算高达上千万美元，开发周期长达3-5年，而且销售额也很惊人。但是，可下载游戏的团队规模大多少于20人，预算也不会超过数百万美元，开发周期最多1-2年，零售价也就在15-20美元，各个公司都绞尽脑汁为自己的游戏争取市场。

torchlight

《火炬之光》（Torchlight）就相当于20美元的《暗黑破坏神》（Diablo），你也可以把《Shadow Complex》当成50美元的上一代的《Limbo》游戏缩价版本过过瘾，或者《Monday Night Combat》，《Overgrowth》，《Braid》等等。除此之外，你还有其他更多选择，比如《Blueberry Garden》、《Osmos》、《World of Goo》、《Monaco》等这种小团队制作的5-10美元游戏。另外，由Riot开发的《League of Legends》、《World of Tanks》等小团队游戏也已能和早期大制作的MMO游戏分庭抗礼。

所以，可下载游戏不会陷入价格底线的竞争，因为它们本身的价格已几乎触及底线。

它们的游戏开发成本，要求游戏售出这种价格。只有在这个价格前提下，才能保证公司扣除成本后仍小有盈利。游戏邦认为，就像iphone游戏可以证明开发商能通过99美分售价获得成功，在Steam/XBLA/PSN平台上的更大型游戏，也有让自己获得成功的价格底线。

这已经是动作角色扮演游戏的价格底线，或者动作类格斗游戏的价格底线，这种例子已经不胜枚举。游戏邦认为，这类游戏的数量仍在不断增加，因为市场需求还在不断扩大。

有没有人担心这些游戏如果降至99美分或者破产价，它们就会因无法实现营收而消失？是的，这种情况可能会发生，这也正是市场对它们的定价高于99美分的原因所在。

我不确定可下载游戏是否会面临艰难处境，但我认为这一行已经遭遇价格瓶颈，而且顺利挺了过来。99美分售价是否仍会让游戏整体贬值，导致无人重视游戏内容？

在家体验过《翼飞冲天》之后，我想我会去玩《子弹风暴》（Bulletstorm），有天我也得体验下《龙腾世纪 DLC》（Dragon Age DLC）。游戏的贬值现象让我确信，我只会喜欢特定一种类型的游戏。（本文为游戏邦/gamerboom.com编译，转载请注明来源：游戏邦）

Steam, XBLA, PSN et al won’t fall to 99c

There’s this (very understandable) worry amongst folks looking at the market currently enjoyed by Steam (and Impulse/D2D et al), PSN and XBLA.  This idea that somehow, it will be infected by the same malaise that has driven mobile pricing to 99c.  That game value is eroded, that content is without value, that we’ll never have another Ultima or similarly higher-cost game again and that we’re all doomed to a world of flying on Tiny Wings away from Angry Birds.

First, let me be clear: I love Tiny Wings and Angry Birds.  Tiny Wings moreso I think, but that’s beside the point.

Second, if I say “downloadables,” I generally mean Steam (and Impulse/D2D et al), XBLA and PSN.  Yes yes, I know, iOS is also downloadables, just… run with me.  I am tired of typing that entire thing out.

Third, let’s get to the point: I don’t think we’re going to see a race to the bottom in pricing in downloadables.  “But!–” you say, but – hold on, let me at least run you through the reasoning.

Mobile games pre-iPhone meant Nintendo GB/GBA and DS, mostly.  The market was priced well below AAA big-box console games, around $20-$30, and it was of course a massive industry.  The team sizes were typically below 10 (call it 7-ish on average?), the dev times were a matter of months, and it was high volume as a result.

You drove a small company based on contract work, and had to sell yourself well to keep going, unless you scraped together enough scratch to run with an original IP and got lucky with strong sales.

The occasional game came out with a longer development cycle or a larger team, but typically on the back of a larger company or IP that could be counted on to sell much better.  You also had people risking substantial savings on long shots, and losing out miserably if they weren’t so lucky.

Aside from the price, that… sounds a lot like modern iOS development, doesn’t it?  Very similar team sizes, very similar development timelines.  I’d say product visibility was easier to control, and team sizes were larger, about twice as big, though these days that’s inching back up.

What really changed was the price, yet these companies are still staying in business about as well as they managed before (which is to say, it’s risky as heck and difficult to drum up enough business entirely on original IP, but that isn’t much of a change) making games of a very similar appeal and scope.

This suggests that the content, stripped of debatably higher graphical quality and platform-related overheads, had an actual cost of something closer to less than $5, though tiering drove them more toward 99c.

Now let’s look at downloadables.

These games were born from the market of AAA $60 titles.  Massive team sizes (100+, easily), massive budgets in the many multiples of 10s of millions, development times of 3-5 years, and massive sales.  Now we see team sizes of usually less than 20, budgets below or in the very low millions, development times more like 1-2 years at most, selling for $15-20, and in every way competing with current gaming tastes.

You have Torchlight as a $20 Diablo, Shadow Complex as a game you would have paid $50 for last generation, Limbo too, Monday Night Combat, Overgrowth, Braid et al, etc, and that doesn’t even count those more focused game types that are being pulled off famously by still smaller teams for $5-10ish.  Blueberry Garden, Osmos, World of Goo, Monaco, the list goes on.  Then you include the small-team f2p’s, Riot games with League of Legends, or World of Tanks, and compare those against the previous stock of huge budget MMOs.

Downloadables are immune from race to the bottom conditions because they already have raced to the bottom.

This is the price it takes to make these games.  This is the price at which these games can be made and still be profitable.  Just as iPhone has shown the price at which mobile games can succeed, Steam / XBLA / PSN have shown the larger games the scale at which they can still succeed and be profitable.

The minimum you can scale an action RPG, or how low you can go with a physically-active combat game about rabbit ninjas and still have it be awesome – we’re already pretty much there.  In fact, we’re swinging up a bit, as this market grows.

The worry that if we hit 99c or bust prices, that these games would vanish, because they can’t be made at that scale?  Well yes, that was what would have happened, which is why the market put on the breaks above that point.

I’m not sure there’s any great boogeyman here to face.  I think we already faced it… and came out fine.  And the cries that 99c gaming will still devalue gaming on a whole, and that nobody values content anymore?

After I play Tiny Wings when I get home, then I think I’ll finish Bulletstorm.  And then I need to finish that Dragon Age DLC chapter someday.  Devaluation indeed, harumph, quit telling me that I can only like one kind of game.（Source：gamasutra）