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Digi-Capital调查:2014年中国游戏市场份额或超美国

发布时间:2011-02-23 11:50:07 Tags:,,,,,

据投资银行Digi-Capital的调查显示,因为社交网络和手机平台的发展,中国电子游戏产业有望超过美国,成为全球最大的游戏市场。

据游戏邦了解,在线游戏和手机游戏在行业总营收中的比重,在2014年将从1/3增长到1/2,达到440亿美元左右。

预计到2014年中国游戏产业将占全球游戏市场的1/4,目前的这一比例已达12%。而到2014年,美国游戏产业在全球市场中的比重将从26%下降到22%。

同时,以美国动视暴雪、EA为代表的传统掌机游戏的销量,将维持现状或者出现下滑。

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Digi-Capital总经理Tim Merel表示,“我们认为中国公司在2011年将成为主要的游戏供应商,腾讯2月份收购Riot Games就已经显示出这种征兆。”

腾讯在国内已经拥有大量的在线游戏玩家,高峰时期的同时在线玩家甚至达到了2000万。 Merel认为,随着更多风险资本的涌入,2014年在线游戏和手机游戏的复合年增长率将高达18%。

但他也指出,腾讯,盛大网络和巨人网络等公司的毛利率高达50%,而一款投资高达2000万美元的大型掌机游戏,只有销量达到50万至100万份,才能勉强维持收支平衡。

这也正是风险投资资金大量涌向在线游戏和手机游戏赢家身上的原因。Digi-Capital指出,去年这一行业的融资情况滑落到2007年的水平,但比2009年增长了52%。

据游戏邦了解,盛大网络,搜狐畅游,巨人网络等中国游戏公司在股市上的价值都已达到数十亿美元。

Merel表示,“腾讯的市值超过动视暴雪、EA、GamesStop、Take2、THQ,雅达利、Game Group和育碧的总和”,约达500亿美元。

他预计亚洲公司未来将进行更多的国际合作,走出国门,向海外进军。(本文为游戏邦/gamerboom.com编译,转载请注明来源:游戏邦)

China to overtake US gaming market

Powered by social networks and mobiles, Chinese video games are set to topple America’s lead as the world’s largest gaming market, according to research by Digi-Capital, a boutique investment bank.

Its new report predicts that revenue from online and mobile games will grow from a third to a half of the industry’s total revenues, at around $44bn, by 2014.

Within that, China is predicted to make up almost half of sales, meaning the Chinese games market will be a quarter of the world’s total by 2014, from around 12 per cent today. Over the same period, the US’s share of the games market will fall from 26 per cent to 22 per cent.

Meanwhile, sales of traditional console games – the part of the business led by Activision-Blizzard and Electronic Arts– will be flat or even down.

“We expect to see Chinese companies as major games consolidators in 2011,” says Tim Merel, managing director of Digi-Capital. “Tencent’s Riot Games acquisition announced in February is a portent of more to come.”

Tencent’s domestic market already delivers huge volumes of online gamers – 20m simultaneous players at peak time. Mr Merel predicts an 18 per cent compound annual growth rate for online and mobile games until 2014, powered by an influx of venture-capital investment.

He contrasts the 50 per cent gross margins enjoyed in online games from the likes of Tencent, Shanda and Giant Interactive with the $20m investments required to make a blockbuster console game, which needs to sell between 500,000 and 1m units just to break even.

Little wonder, then, that venture-capital investment is swinging behind the likely winners in online and mobile gaming. Fundraisings returned to 2007 levels last year, Digi-Capital says, up 52 per cent on 2009.

Chinese games companies such as Shanda, ChangYou.com and Giant are already achieving billion-dollar stock-market valuations.

“Tencent’s market cap is substantially more than Activision Blizzard, Electronic Arts,  GamesStop, Take2, THQ, Atari, Game Group and Ubisoft combined,” Mr Merel says, at around $50bn.

As such, he expects Asian companies to drive more of the international consolidation as they push outside their home markets in the coming years.(Source:blogs.ft.com)


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