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业内话题:Zynga何时能够成为最有价值的游戏公司?

发布时间:2011-02-23 11:16:43 Tags:,,,,,

是时候该讨论这个问题了:Zynga可以成为电子游戏行业最有价值的公司吗?

游戏邦获悉,有传言说Zynga正融资5亿美元,其估值已达100亿美元左右,远超美国艺电(Electronic Arts)的64.7亿美元。美国动视暴雪是这个行业身价最高的公司,市值达133亿美元。虽然这可能是“泡沫资金”,但无论如何,电子游戏行业都不得不面对行业格局正在发生变化这个现实。

按照Zynga的发展速度,它很快就可以赶超动视暴雪的市值。EA和动视暴雪的高管们有可能都在想,“这怎么可能?”Zynga不过才成立4年而已,而EA和动视暴雪可都是电子游戏行业的元老。

zynga-pincus-image

zynga-pincus-image

从表面上看,这似乎很不可思议。据游戏邦了解,EA本财年(截止2011年3月31日)营收有可能高达37亿美元(非公认会计原则)。动视暴雪2010年的营收是48亿美元(非公认会计原则)。EA和动视暴雪都有7000多名员工,从非公认会计原则的角度来看,他们的利润都很可观。

据《华尔街日报》的消息源透露,Zynga在2010年的营收约4亿美元,该公司有1500名员工,平均每个月收购一家游戏工作室。而EA则表示争取在本财年实现7.5亿美元的收益。

据二手市场(雇员和股东可以在二手市场把股票卖给富有的投资者)的资料显示,Zynga在去年10月的估值仅52.7亿美元,当时就已经超过了EA。那么,Zynga是如何在短短的3个多月中让身价翻倍了呢?

如果从收入的倍数来看,Zynga如今的估值至少是2010营收的11倍,动视暴雪的市值则比2010年营收多2.7倍左右,EA身价比2010年营收多1.7倍。有没有公司被高估了呢?

据游戏邦了解,投资者很可能是根据其营收增长潜力来对Zynga进行估值,因为它的增长速度很快,所以也很有可能被高估。Zynga显然是少数能够跻身社交媒介巨头俱乐部的公司之一,与Facebook、Groupon等社交网站并驾齐驱。Facebook通过最近的一次融资,身价已猛涨至500亿美元;团购网站Groupon的估值在60多亿美元;商务社交网站LinkedIn正准备上市;Twitter的身价也在80亿美元至100亿美元之间。为了让大家了解这些公司的身价是如何上涨的,VentureBeat网站还曾在2008年发表了“Twitter值1.5亿美元吗?”的这篇文章。

自从采用免费玩游戏的运营模式后,Zynga的市场表现就已引起了无数投资者的注意。不过游戏邦认为,亚洲游戏公司在免费模式同样表现非凡,值得一提的是,腾讯在中国股市的价值已达460亿美元左右。而大部分的中国在线游戏公司的估值都在40亿美元以下。

在过去3个月,Zynga的身价一直在上涨,继第一款热门游戏《FarmVille》之后,它又推出了《CityVille》,后者成为Zynga有史以来发展速度最快的游戏。此外,Zynga也开始考虑跨国运营,并进军手机游戏领域(已收购手机游戏《Words With Friends》开发商Newtoy)。

投资者马克·库班(Mark Cuban)曾通过把Broadcast.com卖给雅虎赚了57亿美元,他在一个采访中表示,我们所于一个金字塔结构的时代,而不是泡沫时代。他认为投资热门公司就像“互联网的连锁信”,早期的风险投资家信心满满地说服迟到的风险投资家,而后者又去游说私人股本投资者。一路下来,最后一个环节的投资者不是沧落得两手空空,就是只能让公司上市。

你可以认为Zynga的价值并非真的,因为我们处在一个泡沫时代,一切都注定会贬值的。但是传统的游戏公司并不赞同这种观点,因为Zynga可以用它的资本去购买有真正有价值的资产,它平均每个月收购一家小型游戏工作室,它已经拥有足够的资本买下一家传统的游戏开发商。它可以在新游戏中投入足够的资金,对另一个游戏行业造成威胁。这就是泡沫价值变成真正价值的过程。

反对者有很多不同的看法,他们认为纵观全局,像Zynga这样的暴发户不过是沧海一粟。Zynga在去年也体会到“第一名”其实是个十分脆弱的位置;在《FarmVille》达到巅峰,而《CityVille》还没发行的时候,Zynga流失了无数的用户。后来借助《CityVille》,它又重新实现了高速发展。

今年有许多公司将进军Zynga的核心战场Facebook平台,试图打败Zynga的社交游戏。但是要把Zynga轰下Facebook社交游戏的冠军宝座十分困难,因为它已经进入了一种能使自身永久立足于Facebook的状态。要常驻Facebook,Zynga得在市场营销上投入大量资金,但Zynga并不差钱,而且有能力快速收回成本,所以Zynga在Facebook平台的地位几乎难以撼动。

游戏邦认为,游戏市场的发展还没有结束。游戏界元老理查德·盖瑞特(Richard Garriott)表示,每一次的重大突破都会让用户增长10倍。社交游戏迅猛发展的时候就是如此,吸引了许多休闲游戏的玩家,其能量远超过硬核游戏。随着手机游戏的崛起,这一领域还会涌现更多的用户。

平板电脑游戏和智能手机游戏将成为这一行业的重要发展趋势,EA已在这个市场占据重要地位,而动视暴雪却并非这一领域的竞争者,Zynga则已经做好与日本DeNA这类大公司开战的准备。

如果动视暴雪把自己视为掌机游戏开发商,那他们显然眼界还不够宽阔。如果Zynga认为自己是Facebook游戏开发公司,同样也有点目光短浅。手机游戏和更大的数字游戏市场才是创造价值之所在,因为游戏用户规模会从Facebook现在的6亿人增长到数十亿人。

手机游戏是未来游戏行业竞争的重要战场,目前还没有人能够独占这一市场。如果每个开发公司都实现了自己的手机游戏梦想,那么游戏公司就会变得一文不值了。(本文为游戏邦/gamerboom.com编译,转载请注明来源:游戏邦)

WTF: How long before Zynga becomes the most valuable video game company?

With its rumored funding round of $500 million, Zynga’s value is estimated to be $10 billion. That puts the company far ahead of Electronic Arts, which has a market capitalization of $6.47 billion. Activision Blizzard is the industry’s most valuable company, valued at $13.3 billion. This may be “bubble money” for sure. But like it or not, the video game industry is going to have to admit that the game is changing.

At the rate that Zynga’s value has been growing, you can expect that it will likely surpass Activision Blizzard’s value. I know for a fact that the executives at Electronic Arts and Activision Blizzard are thinking, “WTF?” How can this be? Zynga is just around four years old, while EA and Activision Blizzard are among the oldest in the video game industry.

On its face, it is absurd. EA’s projected revenue for the fiscal year ending March 31, 2011, is expected to be as high as $3.7 billion (non-GAAP). For calendar 2010, Activision Blizzard’s revenues were $4.8 billion (non-GAAP). EA and Activision both have more than 7,000 employees. Both are profitable on a non-GAAP basis.

Zynga’s revenues in 2010 are estimated to be $850 million, with a profit of $400 million, according to confidential sources cited in a Wall Street Journal story. The company has more than 1,500 employees and it has been buying a game studio once a month. By comparison, EA has said it is on track to hit digital revenues of $750 million in the fiscal year that ends March 31.

Back in October, Zynga’s value was a mere $5.27 billion, according to limited trading on secondary markets, where employees and other shareholders are allowed to sell their stock to well-heeled investors. At that point, its value surpassed EA’s. What did Zynga do to double its market value in a little more than three months?

If you look at Zynga’s value in terms of a multiple of revenues, it is trading at more than 11 times 2010 revenue. Activision Blizzard is trading at around 2.7 times 2010 revenue, and EA is somewhere around 1.7 times revenue. Is somebody overvalued here?

Zynga is most likely being valued on the basis of its potential revenues and earnings; since it is growing at a faster rate, investors are naturally going to value it higher. And Zynga is clearly part of the rarefied social media technology club that also includes Facebook, whose value has soared to $50 billion in a recent funding; Groupon, valued at more than $6 billion; LinkedIn, which is preparing to go public; and Twitter, valued at $8 billion to $10 billion. To give you an idea of how this group’s value has grown, we wrote a story in 2008 asking, “Is Twitter worth $150 million?”

Zynga has attracted enormous investor interest since it cracked the free-to-play gaming model, where the games are free but players pay for virtual goods. Asian game companies have done that as well and it is worth noting that Tencent’s value is around $46 billion on the Chinese stock market. Most of China’s online game companies, however, are valued at under $4 billion.

Zynga’s value has also grown in the past there months because it has moved past its first big hit, FarmVille, with its new game CityVille becoming the fastest-growing game ever. Plus, it’s getting serious about international expansion and mobile gaming (in the latter case through the acquisition of Words With Friends-maker Newtoy).

Mark Cuban, the investor who made $5.7 billion selling Broadcast.com to Yahoo in the last dotcom bubble, said in an interview that we’re in a pyramid scheme, not a bubble. He said investments in the hot companies are like an “internet chain letter,” where early venture capitalists are happily selling to late-stage venture capitalists, who are selling to private equity investors. Somewhere along the line, the last investor either gets caught holding the bag or the company goes public.

You can argue that Zynga’s value isn’t real, since we’re in a bubble, and it is bound to deflate. But traditional game companies shouldn’t get comfortable with that thought. That’s because Zynga could use its valuation to buy assets with real value. It has been buying a small game studio every month, but it has built enough of a cash hoard to buy a traditional game maker. It can invest enough money in new games where it will become a threat to be reckoned with. That is how bubble value turns into real value.

The naysayers have plenty of ammo, as they can argue that upstarts such as Zynga are still small in the grand scheme of things. Zynga learned during much of last year that being No. 1 is a fragile position; after FarmVille peaked, and before CityVille launched, Zynga was losing millions upon millions of users. Then a new hit game, CityVille, lifted it back into growth mode.

Lots of brands are going to attack Zynga’s core market of Facebook games this year. But it will likely be very hard to dislodge Zynga, which has moved into a kind of self-perpetuating state. Zynga has to spend a lot of money on marketing to stay there, but as long as it has the cash, and can get more of it, Zynga is very formidable on Facebook.

But let me point out the obvious. The gaming market’s growth isn’t done. With each major disruption, the audience tends to grow ten-fold, as noted by game pioneer Richard Garriott. We’ve seen that happen as social games exploded, reaching far more casual gamers than hardcore games ever did. And we could see this happen again with the arrival of game-capable mobile devices.

The biggest area of growth in the coming years is likely to be games for tablets and smartphones. In that market, EA has a huge position, while Activision Blizzard isn’t a player. And Zynga is just getting started in competition with big Japanese companies such as DeNA, which bought Ngmoco for $403 million, or roughly 13 times revenues.

If EA and Activision Blizzard think of themselves as console gaming companies, they aren’t thinking big enough. If Zynga thinks about itself as a Facebook company, it isn’t thinking big enough. Mobile gaming and the larger digital markets that go with it are going to be where the real value gets created, since the audience size will grow from the potential of 600 milllion Facebook to billions of users.

Mobile gaming is where the battle royal is going to be. And nobody has that market locked up yet. If everybody’s dreams about mobile come true, then the valuations of game companies are low. Now how’s that for a WTF thought?(Source:venturebeat)


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