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总结2011年全球移动大会的六点行业发展趋势

发布时间:2011-02-21 15:20:43 Tags:,,,,

今年的全球移动大会不像往年那么热闹,大会汇集了许多欧洲人,也出现了越来越多的亚洲面孔,当提及这一行业未来走向时,本届大会涌现出了不少非同寻常的观点。

以下是游戏邦根据PocketGamer的报道,总结出的移动行业的几点主要发展趋势。

blackberry-playbook

blackberry-playbook

1.硬件设备将更难突围

智能手机基本上是大型新潮的触摸屏设备,主要通过一系列的固定屏幕按钮实现操作,手机设备在外表上的差异性并不明显。

诸如视网膜屏幕(Retina screen)、Super AMOLED或者四核(quad-core)、GHz等越来越多新型行业术语的广泛使用,开始让西方原始设备制造商们意识到,在中国物美价廉的竞争产品面前,他们的饭碗有可能保不住了。

当然,中国制造的移动设备在质量上依旧难敌诺基亚,但现在已凸优势,而且其竞争力大有加强的趋势。

为了让移动设备增值,制造商们不得不创造更具差异化特性的新名词,比如索爱的Xperia Play,三星“最超薄”的智能手机,以及滑动式QWERTY键盘等,就属于这种典型。

2.手机应用软件凸显重要性

游戏邦认为,由于硬件设备越来越平价,智能手机要实现差异化发展,就只能从应用软件方面入手了。

当然,要实现这一点也非常困难——现在几乎每款手机都安装了Facebook,Twitter聊天工具以及一般的社交/媒介应用软件;每款手机都绑定了相关的应用商店;许多手机都植入了三个以上的应用软件销售渠道。

因此,原始设备制造商不得不寻找其他可以让产品脱颖而出的途径。目前来看,在产品中预装游戏这个方法效果不错,另外,提供自己的用户界面也是一个理想的选择。

惠普的TouchPad令人印象深刻,因为它的webOS操作系统的确很棒,但黑莓的PlayBook看起来却有些过时,因为TaT的用户界面并不是那么称心如意。

真正的差异化服务还是有可能创造利润的,这也正是为何诺基亚要支持微软已绑定Xbox Live的WP7,索爱要植入PlayStation服务,HTC向OnLive投资的原因所在。

hp-touchpad-official

hp-touchpad-official

3.平板电脑大战即将上演

为了不让苹果继续主导新市场的行业游戏规则,平板电脑制造商费尽心力,希望突破9.7英寸(对角标准)屏幕的技术标准,但是5英寸的屏幕又似乎太小,而7英寸的则太窄。

为此,LG推出的Optimus Tab采用的是8.9英寸的宽屏,而三星的最新产品Tab屏幕却达到了10.1英寸。Acer也孤注一掷,也推出了10.1英寸的重量级巨型款。

然而,这些产品的主页按钮,方向锁,音量键和电源开关其实都是大同小异。不过,除了苹果之外,任何公司都可以在插槽(USB/记忆卡等)这方面取胜。多亏乔布斯对Flash技术的排斥,才让其他公司获得了这种相对优势。

游戏邦认为,平板电脑之间的差别主要体现在价格上。

中国原始设备制造商推出的产品价格比较低,一般在250美元以下,传闻称Acer的产品发布价格为350美元,但惠普,三星和RIM只表示他们的产品将更有“竞争性”,也就是说它们不可能比iPad更贵。

但苹果拥有500亿美元的储备资金,所以它可以承担消费补助和购买大量部件,并保持技术创新,如果建立起了一系列像iPod一样价位的产品线,那么它更有可能继续称雄移动设备市场。

4.黑莓和惠普卷土重来

据游戏邦了解,RIM和惠普这两家公司在全球移动大会上都表现不错,特别是就他们的平板电脑——黑莓PlayBook和TouchPad。

PlayBook的尺寸(比iPad更小,更厚,更精致)很有吸引力,因为它使用的是新的操作系统QNX——TouchPad采用webOS 2.0,这一点是他们从扎堆的Android产品中脱颖而出的原因。

更重要的是,两家公司都很重视用户界面(webOS很棒,QNX如果解决了TaT的问题也会很不错),这些特点可以让这两款设备更好地服务西方用户,这正是平价的Android 3.0产品无法匹敌的地方。

虽然平板电脑的应用软件数量还不够丰富,但要知道,这类产品在所需的应用数量(少于100个)和重要性(可用性,稳健性和安全性)上与手机明显不同。

5.运营商幸庆诺基亚与微软联手

出乎意料的是,诺基亚和微软并非今年全球移动大会上的焦点,据游戏邦了解,诺基亚已经连续两年没有参加这个大会。

多数人都认为诺基亚除了与微软联姻之外,已经没有其他可行的选择,而这两者的结盟又无疑将扩大WP7手机用户规模。

更重要的问题是,这个行业已无法承受这两个巨头公司的失败。

要知道,有不少运营商对苹果很不满,而谷歌正加大马力对Android操作系统及其应用商店进行改革。运营商们很清楚,这个市场上如果没有一个强大的诺基亚,他们的生存基础——计费系统和客户关系,就有可能在这些网络公司的围剿之下毁于一旦。

6.苹果淡出全球移动大会视野

游戏邦认为,这并不是一个主要的趋势,因为苹果没有参加全球移动大会,但大会还是宣布了iPad和iPhone的未来发展情况。从这届大会所展示的非苹果设备的质量,成本和功能来说,这次会议还可以再增加一个副标题——“移动行业自卫反击战”。

很显然,苹果2011年的智能手机和平板电脑的市场份额有可能急剧下降。(本文为游戏邦/gamerboom.com编译,转载请注明来源:游戏邦)

Five key trends we condensed from Mobile World Congress 2011

Thankfully less crowded and frantic than previous years, the annual jamboree of the European, and increasingly the Asian, mobile industry in Barcelona threw up the usual amount of curveballs when it comes to predicting the future.

Trying to collect all those Google Android badges provided some welcome relief too.

But here are some key trends to consider.

1. It’s harder for hardware to matter

The basic form of the smartphone is now fixed as a large candy touchscreen device, perhaps with a number of fixed screen buttons. This provides little opportunity for physical differentiation.

The increasing use of purely invented terms such as Retina screen or technical jargon such as Super AMOLED or quad-core – not to mention the last gasp of the silicon makers: GHz – demonstrates that Western OEMs understand their breakfast and dinner is now being eaten by cheap and cheerful Chinese competitors.

Sure, their build quality isn’t Nokia, but it’s good enough and getting better fast.

Expect more examples of hardware differentiation such as Sony Ericsson’s Xperia Play, Samsung’s “thinnest smartphone ever” claims, or even the return of QWERTY sliders to emerge in the attempt to reinforce handset prices.

2. The rise of soft power

Because hardware is quickly becoming commoditised, software is the major differentiator for smartphones.

Of course, some of this is already lowest common denominator – every handset comes with Facebook, Twitter, chat, and the usual array of social/media apps. Equally, every device comes connected to its own app store; many now have three or more embedded sales channels.

Hence OEMs are looking to tie up exclusives. Pre-installed games work well in this regard, as does the ability to have your own user interface.

HP’s TouchPad was impressive because webOS is impressive, while the BlackBerry PlayBook looks dated because TaT, the UI specialists RIM bought in late 2010, haven’t had a chance to rip it up yet.

Nevertheless, it’s services where real differentiation and profits will be made. No wonder Nokia’s gone for Microsoft including Xbox Live, Sony Ericsson has PlayStation Network, and HTC’s invested in OnLive.

3. Which would Moses write on?

Keen not to let Apple write the design commandments for yet another market, tablet makers are desperate to provide some alternatives to the 9.7-inch screen diagonal standard but 5-inches seems too small, and 7-inches too shallow unless you can squeeze in 768 pixels depth.

Hence LG’s Optimus Tab is a widescreen 8.9-inch, while Samsung’s latest Tab has expanded upwards being 10.1-inches. Acer’s just gone for broke and come up with a monster in terms of size and heft.

Still, a home button, orientation lock, volume rocker and power button already appear to be set in stone. At least, everyone other than Apple can stand out with slots (USB/memory card etc). And thank Steve for the comparative advantage of Flash.

However, the tablet question has always boiled down to price.

Again, Chinese OEMs will have some better than average products sub-$250, rumours suggest Acer could launch at a surprising $350, while the likes of HP, Samsung and RIM say their products will be “competitive” i.e. meaning not much more expensive than iPad.

But with its $50 billion cash pile, Apple can always afford to both subsidise, bulk buy components, and innovative in a way that should ensure it retains market domination in a way it never could with iPhone, especially if it builds out a price point family as it managed with iPod.

4. I am the resurrection

Despite the two previous trends, there is still hope for two companies currently perceived as also-rans. Both RIM and HP impressed at MWC, especially in terms of their respective tablets – BlackBerry PlayBook and TouchPad.

The PlayBook is perhaps the more interesting in terms of size (smaller, thicker and more serious than iPad), but it’s the use of new operating systems – QNX for PlayBook and webOS 2.0 for TouchPad – that make them stand out from the Android Honeycomb crowd.

More importantly, both companies’ focus on user interface (webOS is great, and QNX will be when TaT is through with it), should ensure the devices play and work well for the Western audience in a way the already-commoditised Android 3.0 won’t.

And don’t moan about the lack of apps. Tablets are very different to phones in terms of the number of apps required (less than 100), and what really matters about them (usability, robustness, security).

5. Nokia and Microsoft; learning to fly or voting for Christmas?

There was less talk of those two turkeys Nokia and Microsoft than expected at Mobile World Congress, perhaps because for the second year in a row Nokia wasn’t officially attending the show.

It’s also the case that most people seem to recognise Nokia didn’t have any other viable option, and the deal will give Microsoft an install base it would never have gained with its previous piecemeal approach.

But the wider issue is that the industry can’t afford to let them fail.

Operators hate Apple and Google is already flexing its muscles in terms of the Android OS and its Market. Without a strong Nokia, operators know their last position of strength – billing and customer relations – will be undermined by the web companies.

6. And we didn’t really mention Apple

Not really a key trend, as Apple has never attended Mobile World Congress, but with its future iPad and iPhone devices still be announced, the show could have been subtitled as the Mobile Industry Strikes Back, in terms of the quality, cost and functionality of non-Apple devices being offered.

Clearly, 2011 will see Apple’s market share of smartphones and tablets dramatically reduced.(source:PocketGamer)


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