2010年重塑了人们的商品交易概念，许多创新的付费方式在这一年中获得了巨大发展，以下是PayPal移动平台副总裁Osama Bedier预测的2011年五大虚拟支付发展趋势：

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1.“手机钱包”功能

手机正成为世界上许多用户首选的付费渠道，据Aite Group的报告显示，手机付费方式在2010年的市场规模已达到160亿美元，预计到2015年将达到2140亿美元，增长率高达68%。Aite Group在11月份的报告还指出，在过去12至18个月中，美国正向全民普及手机付费方式的临界点靠拢。

PayPal的数据也有力地证明了这一点，在2010年黑色星期五（Black Friday 2010）这天，通过手机上的PayPal系统付费的交易量比去年同期增加了310%；在2010年网络星期一（Cyber Monday 2010）这天，PayPal的手机付费交易量同比去年也猛增了292%。毫无疑问，手机付费方式在2011年中还将获得更大的突破。

2.网络电视付费渠道

据游戏邦了解，现在的美国人在互联网上花的时间远多于看电视，将电视与家用网络相连接已成为一个日趋流行的趋势，这也为更多公司创造了一个新商机。不少应用开发商已经瞄准了时机，正针对网络电视这一平台开发新产品。由此可见，电视机的用途，将从传统的观看功能转向更具互动性的娱乐体验。

在我们看来，这也就意味着通过网络电视付费也必将成为一种选择，比如FourthWall Media和Canoe Ventures公司就已经面向这个平台推出独特的购物消费服务。

3.手机应用内置计费系统

IDC最近的报告显示，手机应用营收将从2010年的49亿美元，增长到2014年的350亿美元。

应用营收问题也成了许多开发商关注的重点，为此不少开发商在应用产品中植入了各种类型的计费系统，为用户提供方便的付费选项，增加应用的付费转化率。游戏邦认为，这种计费系统在2011年中仍会大有市场。

4.社交网站及团购消费模式

据Ovum零售行业分析师恭巴·德维尔（Christine Bardwell）所称，2011年将成为社交网站商品交易元年。大量用户每天都要在社交网站上耗上许多时间，与朋友、家人和同事保持联系，逐利而行的商人当然也不可能无视这块巨大的市场蛋糕。

微交易系统和虚拟商品是帮助社交网站创收的两大动力，对网络内容制造商和供应商来说，这种方便快捷的在线内容消费行为，无疑为他们打开了另一扇市场大门。

另外，这种具有社交性质的购物行为如果能结合团购的号召力，对成千上万的用户来说就是一种更具杀伤力的选择。总之，2010年仅仅反映了这种消费模式发展潜力的冰山一角。

5.非现金支付手段的商业社会

这并不是说2011就能实现全民非现金消费模式，只是说今年会更向这种趋势靠拢。用户在2010年就已经可以通过传输校验手机上的图片进行付款，也可以通过手机的同时对碰，实现转帐功能；用手机可以为午餐买单，买杯拿铁等其他东西，甚至还能因此获得奖励。（本文为游戏邦/gamerboom.com编译，转载请注明来源：游戏邦）

Five payment trends to watch in 2011

2010 dramatically changed how we think about how people and businesses exchange money. We saw ecommerce continue to grow and we saw emerging channels take flight with consumers and merchants of all sizes.

As great as last year was for innovation in payments, we’re just getting warmed up. This year we should expect to see some incredible innovations that will change how we pay and get paid, and on a broader scale, change how we view physical currency (spoiler: This will be the beginning of the end for cash). Below are some of my thoughts on how payments will evolve in the next year. I’d love to get your opinion in the comments section.

Mobile, mobile, mobile

Wallet in the cloud. The digital wallet. Call it what you want, but mobile devices are poised to become a primary form of payment for millions of people around the world. According to Aite Group forecasts, mobile bill payments will reach $214 billion in gross dollar volume in 2015, up from $16 billion in 2010, which represents a 68 percent compound annual growth rate. A November 2010 Aite Group report stated “Over the past 12 to 18 months, the United States has begun to move closer to a tipping point that will lead to the popularization of mobile payments.”

At PayPal, we couldn’t agree more with this statement, and our numbers back it up. Consider that PayPal saw a 310 percent increase in mobile payment volume on Black Friday 2010 compared to the previous year, and a 292 percent increase in mobile payment volume on Cyber Monday 2010 compared to Cyber Monday 2009. Without a doubt, mobile payments are here to stay and will see significant innovation in the coming year.

T-commerce

Despite recent reports indicating Americans now spend as much time on the Internet as they do watching television, the TV is ripe for innovation as more and more consumers connect them to home networks, which opens up a new world of possibilities. For starters, the level of interactivity people will have with their television stands to undergo a major transformation. TV will go from a passive (viewing-only) experience to a highly interactive activity as more and more apps are developed specifically for the platform.

From our point of view, part of that interactivity will be the ability to conduct a wide variety of transactions through a television. Companies like FourthWall Media and Canoe Ventures are pioneering some amazing technology that will bring a unique shopping experience to your living room (or wherever your television happens to be).

‘Appification’

IDC issued a new report that says, among other things, over the past three years the mobile apps space has seen an “appification” of “broad categories of interactions and functions in both the physical and the digital worlds.” And this only stands to continue — in fact, the same IDC report projects mobile app revenue to grow from $4.9 billion in 2010 to $35 billion by 2014.

In terms of payments, app developers are increasingly focused on monetizing their work and we continue to build and refine the types of tools and solutions to enable them to do just that. We’ve also shared our plans to get in to the app game as well, which will be exciting to watch develop in the coming months.

Social Shopping

Social shopping is clearly poised for significant growth — in fact, Ovum retail analyst Christine Bardwell was recently quoted as saying “… 2011 will be the year when social commerce will really take off.” With hundreds of millions of people connecting with friends, family and colleagues on social networks (not to mention spending in insane amount of time on them), it’s only natural that merchants of all sizes would follow them.

Among the key drivers of this trend are micropayments and digital goods. Along the same lines of merging physical world experiences with digital activity, the ability to make quick, small purchases for online content represents a huge opportunity for both content producers and providers.

When you combine the notion of social shopping with group buying you get a very powerful experience that has the potential to appeal to millions of consumers. From our perspective, we’re just starting to see the tip of this iceberg emerge.

A Cashless Society

Now let’s not go crazy here, I’m not suggesting that by this time next year we’ll be living in a cashless society. Far from it. That said, 2011 will undoubtedly see several significant steps

that will take us closer to such a world. As we close out 2010, you can already transfer checks simply by snapping a photo on your mobile device, send money to others by bumping your mobile phones together and you can even buy your lunch, a latte, or other goods by swiping a mobile device in the same way you would a credit or debit card (and even earn rewards for doing it!).（source:venturebeat）