游戏邦注：本文作者是手机社交游戏平台MocoSpace公司联合创始人、首席技术官Jamie Hall。

我不是第一个也不会是最后一个预言移动科技市场未来走向的人，撰写此文的目的也只是从另一角度解读它的发展趋势，希望能和大家分享一些不寻常的看法。

首先要回顾一下2010年的有关情况——手机内容已成为继铃音、短信服务之后，移动市场的又一个重要营收来源；移动广告也已经从高速发展升级到了超速发展时代，谷歌和苹果在这一领域的角力究竟花落谁家，实在很令人期待；除了移动广告网站，手机内容发行商在今年也大获丰收，推出了不少令人叫绝的产品，比如Shazam应用以及手机游戏《愤怒的小鸟》（Angry Birds）就已经成为全球热词。

那么2011年的情形究竟是大致与此相同，还是会发生翻天覆地的变化？以下是我的5个预测：

HTML5

1.手机浏览器将成为黑马，HTML会以全新面目卷土重来。

手机应用已成为移动内容的主流供应渠道，几乎人人都想下载或者已经下载了一款应用。在2009年及2010年的印度市场，应用内容几乎可以决定手机平台的命运；苹果、谷歌及其他公司都已经把宝押在了手机应用领域上。

但我认为，因为移动互联网的回归，手机应用泡沫在2011年会有所收缩。

因为HTML才是王道。

HTML5可以通过移动互联网，创造与手机应用类似的用户界面、设计和交互性体验。虽然从麦德逊大道（游戏邦注：Madison Avenue，美国广告业中心）到硅谷沙丘路（游戏邦注：Sand Hill Road，硅谷乃至全美最显赫的一条道路，聚集了美国最重要的风险投资机构），人人都在为手机应用体验大唱赞歌，但其实大家都心知肚明：手机应用具有分散性，仅局限于某个手机平台，所以它并非长远的解决方案。

用户购买手机内容时希望获得和应用一样的产品体验，如果这种体验可以复制到移动互联网，相信许多公司都会开始关注HTML这个领域。

手机应用的分散性实在很成问题。传统运营项目迟早会无力支撑专门针对某个平台开发应用的工程、资金、市场营销的资源耗损，而移动互联网不但拥有更多用户，而且内容更新成本更小，所以是一个最优选择。

但我并不是说“平台专属应用”会就此走向灭亡，只是认为移动互联网将以全新面目再度征服用户。

2.手机社交游戏将运行于浏览器页面。

与上一个预测相同，手机游戏体验也会开始网页化。许多应用铁杆支持者可能还是坚信，手机游戏仍然是少数运行性能优于网页的应用产品，这种看法也许适用于一些特定的游戏，但对社交及休闲游戏来说，用户规模决定了它们的未来发展趋势仍然是移动互联网。

社交游戏支持用户邀请友人共同参与游戏，这一点正是基于应用的游戏的短板。你所有的朋友都会使用同一款智能手机吗？我看未必，但敢打赌大部分人都可以连接移动互联网。

3.拉美人将成为下一代美国移动服务的重要用户群体。

在美国各个族群中，拉美人的手机覆盖率上升得最快，相信品牌内容供应商及发行商意识到了这一点，也会立即采取行动，推出针对这一群体的移动服务。

我认为在2011年，各个手机平台将大量涌现支持西班牙语的手机游戏及内容。

今年有25%的财富100强消费品牌已针对拉美族群展开移动市场营销活动，预计在2011年这个比例将上升到50%。

看清这个形势的初创企业、品牌和项目，如果能面向拉美用户推出创新、多元化的移动服务，就有可能成为下一个Twitter、Foursquare或者Zynga。

4.2011将成手机虚拟货币交易年

手机虚拟货币将成为移动内容、游戏发行商的一个关键性营收工具。现在已经有许多运营商与发行商建立了直接的计费合作关系，发行商也在微交易服务中植入了可行的虚拟货币系统，预计2011年虚拟货币交易将增长500%。

出现这种结果并不意外，只是Android及其主要移动运营商要赶上苹果iOS为开发商、用户所创造的服务水准，可能真需要费一番功夫。一些手机平台在这个环节上可能会暂时落后，但它们的发展方向已经很明朗，也会支持一些小规模的虚拟货币交易。

google-android

5.苹果不是威胁，谷歌才是谷歌自己最大的敌人。

2011上半年，iPhone市场份额会大幅度上升，但在下半年Android会更占优势。谷歌最大的挑战并非来自苹果，而是Android这个开放性平台本身的分散性特点。手机内容发行商将根据运行性能的优劣，从各种Android手机、平板电脑中筛选出其中最优者。

谷歌旗下的AdMob已有大批高管出走，还有不少成员流向了Facebook，这种局面对谷歌来说非常不利，它在2011年必须加紧招贤纳士，有可能会出手收购5家以上涉及手机计费系统、社交网站、游戏、移动分析等领域的移动服务公司。

2011年的移动产业将再次迎来创新突破，经济模式转型、基础设备更新、新旧平台挑战、新兴用户群培养等问题，都将成为这一行业的关注重点。（本文为游戏邦/gamerboom.com编译，转载请注明来源：游戏邦）

Five Unexpected Mobile Predictions For 2011

OK, I’m not the first or last exec to tell you where the mobile technology market is heading for 2011. What I do promise is to share some ideas on what will happen that no one expects.

First of all, let’s give it up for mobile content in 2010. Lots of money was finally made in a market that was looking for the next revenue boom since ringtones and premium SMS.

Mobile advertising went from hype to hyper-growth. Amazing what a Google/Apple bidding war will do. Beyond actual ad networks, mobile publishers had their best year to date with several mobile-specific properties even making the top risers of the Google Zeitgiest 2010.

Mobile specific brands made their mark. Apps like Shazam and games like Angry Birds are now part of the global lexicon. These are all mobile-specific products, not just online or traditional tech crossovers.

Will 2011 be more of the same or something entirely new for mobile world?

Here are my predictions for 2011:

1. The mobile browser is the new black. HTML is back and it’s the new app.

Apps helped mobile content go mainstream. Everyone wanted an app and everybody received one. From the smartest smartphone to text-message apps in India, apps have defined mobile in 2009 and

2010, with Apple, Google and nearly everyone else hedging their bets this way.

Expect the app bubble to deflate in 2011 as the mobile web makes its comeback.

Why? HTML5.

Yes, HTML5 is brining app-like UI, design, and interactivity to the mobile Web. While everyone from Madison Avenue to Sand Hill Road tout the app experience, every company behind-the-scenes knows that the app is too fragmented to be THE long-term solution.

Now that consumers are consuming mobile content, they expect an app-like experience; once that experience is replicated on the mobile web, expect more companies to focus there.

Fragmentation is real. The typical business cannot continue to burn engineering, capital and marketing to build platform-specific experiences. The mobile web wins because it reaches the most people and requires the least amount of ongoing update expense.

Don’t get me wrong. You’ll still see an ‘app for that’ for almost any business but the mobile web will be ready for its second coming and will look prettier than ever.

2. Mobile social gaming will expand beyond Apps into the browser.

Following on prediction #1, games will also flock to the mobile web. Many app fanboys will argue that gaming is one of the few categories that fares better as an app than a mobile website. This may be true for certain solitary games, but for social and casual games, the future is the mobile web.

Why? Scale.

Social gaming requires friends to invite other friends. This is where app-based gaming falls short. Do all of your friends have the same smartphone? No. I bet most of them can access the mobile web. Voila. Now you have a true social gaming graph in mobile.

3. Cuadrados Cuatro? Latinos will define the next great U.S. mobile service

The biggest secret in mobile content adoption is the rise of the Latino consumer. Latinos are embracing mobile at a rate far faster than any segment in the U.S. and finally brands and publishers will wake up.

2011 will see Spanish-language mobile games and more content targeted specifically to this segment, evenly across all platforms.

50% of Fortune 100 consumer brands will run Latino-targeted mobile marketing campaigns in 2011, up from 25% in 2010.

Startups, brands and businesses who identify creative, multi-faceted ways to reach the Latino audience could become tomorrow’s Twitter, Foursquare or Zynga.

4. 2011 – The year of in-content mobile commerce

In 2011, mobile virtual currency becomes a key driver of revenue for mobile publishers and game companies. As carriers begin to build out direct billing relationships with publishers, and publishers establish viable virtual currency ecosystems with seamless micro-transactions, virtual currency transactions will grow 500% in 2011.

There’s really no surprise here but the main challenges to this prediction will be the time it takes for Android and major mobile operators to deliver a robust experience to developers and consumers such as the one that exists on Apple’s iOS. Some platforms will lag but the future is clear and involves bite-sized purchases.

5. Google’s biggest competitor won’t be Apple, it will be Google

Despite a jump in iPhone market share as a result of the much-anticipated launch on Verizon in the first half of 2011, by the second half of the year Android market share will dominate. Google’s biggest challenge won’t be Apple, but rather the growing fragmentation of the open Android platform. Publishers will tier Android handsets and tablets by capability, and increasingly target only the most capable among them.

Google, which is already facing an exodus of execs from AdMob and a non-stop ferry shuttle to Facebook, will need to sustain its momentum of talent acquisition and will make five more mobile acquisitions in 2011 including areas like mobile billing, social networking, gaming and analytics.

2011 will be another banner year for the mobile industry with a keen focus on economic models, infrastructure, the new old platform and emerging consumer segments. Regardless of any points above, there’s no question we’re all in for another crazy ride, so fasten your seat belts.（source:businessinsider）