提到手机应用及游戏的未来走向，独立应用商店GetJar首席执行官Ilja Laurs的说法应该算是比较有份量，只是他最近预言手机应用开发商在2011年的营收会增长10倍，这个预测倒真是有待推敲，因为他不过是根据今年的行业发展形势下此结论。

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据UtalkMarketing.com报道，这名GetJar创始人认为，像《愤怒的小鸟》（Angry Birds）开发商Rovio这类大型手机应用开发公司，明年的营收可能超过1亿美元，“一年前，判断一家手机应用公司运营是否成功，就看它的营收有没有超过1000万美元。但现在的开发商要获得成功，营收就要比这个标准多10倍。”

Ilja Laurs另外还表示，手机应用商店必须改革运营模式，才能在激烈的市场竞争中生存下来，“在未来10年，所以保守的应用运营系统都将不得不进一步开发市场，否则就有可能被淘汰，当然这种情况不会在这一两年中发生，但这些应用商店最终会迫于竞争压力而选择开放性路线。保守的运营系统会让开发商的应用难以获得曝光率，营收也会陷入困境。”

虽然应用商店的转型时期尚未到来，但Laurs认为已经有不少应用商店因企业并购潮而濒于没落，“十几年前市场上也有大量的搜索引擎，但现在的情况还是这样吗？所以应用商店也会面临企业合并的趋势。在最近5年，市场上只会有6家主流应用商店，但10年后，可能就只剩下两三家应用商店，其他的应用商店都会变成陪衬。”

不过游戏邦发现Laurs似乎特别看好Android平板电脑的发展前景，他称iPad只是一款“昂贵而纯粹用于摆设”的产品，认为到2011年用户将更青睐那些价格更实惠，系统更开放的Android平板电脑，“采用Android操作系统的平板电脑（如Archos、三星Galaxy 10）的低价位、开发性系统以及分布更广的零售终端，会更有竞争优势。”

值得注意的是，他所提到的iPad运行的正是保守的苹果应用商店App Store，考虑到GetJar的开放性运营特点，就不难理解他为什么要站在Android一边了。（本文为游戏邦/gamerboom.com编译，转载请注明来源：游戏邦）

GetJar CEO Laurs reckons developers such as Rovio could rake in $100 million in 2011

There’s no question that it’s in the interests of GetJar CEO Ilja Laurs to play up the role of apps and, more specifically, games in the coming years.

Nevertheless, his prediction that the top studios could see their revenues jump tenfold in 2011 is bound to generate attention, if only because it illustrates the momentum the industry has garnered throughout the course of 2010.

Going for gold

The stark claim was made in a prediction piece for UtalkMarketing.com, where the GetJar founder states the biggest developers in the app business such as Angry Birds creator Rovio, who has worked closely with GetJar over the Android release of its game, could take upwards of $100 million next year.

“Just a year ago, the rubric for a successful app company was to generate revenue in upwards of $10 million,” Laurs says in the seven point strong piece.

“Today, the bar for success is ten times that.”

Unsurprisingly, Laurs also believes the marketplaces these apps profit from are going to have to change their ways in order to survive.

“In ten years, all closed app systems will need to open up or fail,” he continues.

“This won’t happen in the next 1-2 years but closed app stores will continue to feel pressure to become more open or else loose competitiveness. Closed ecosystems make it harder for developers to get their apps discovered, shared and monetised.”

Marketplace mergers

Even before such a transition takes place, Laurs sees the very number of app stores falling away, thanks in part to a round of mergers and buyouts.

“Just as there were thousands of search engines in existence ten years ago, app stores will experience consolidation,” he concludes.

“In five years only six major app store players will make it, and in ten years, only two to three app stores will matter; all other app stores will become app store ghettos.”

All aboard Android

Most interestingly of all is Laurs’ optimistic outlook in regards to Android tablets.

Describing iPad as an “expensive, niche device”, he claims consumers will be drawn to the cheaper, more open nature of Android tablets in 2011.

“Tablets that leverage Android as an operating system (such as the Archos or Samsung Galaxy 10) will benefit from lower price points, open platform, and wide spread availability from common retailers.”

It’s worth noting that iPad, of course, operates a closed app store. Given the nature of GetJar’s business, it’s not exactly surprising that Laurs’ would be fighting Android’s corner.（source:pocketgamer）