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Develop-online消息:“社交游戏市场泡沫”引发投资商关注

发布时间:2010-12-09 09:31:34 Tags:,,

近来,不少主流投资商和游戏业内人士对飙升的社交游戏公司估值提出质疑。

随着社交游戏的不断发展,大量资金流入社交网络,由此引起不少投资商和分析师对社交游戏产业泡沫化的质疑。

据游戏邦了解,部分投资商认为最近疯狂崛起的社交网络和游戏产业类似于10年前网络公司兴起的dotcom泡沫。观察了去年社交游戏市场动态的资产投资商Fred Wilson认为许多投资商对社交游戏的热情十分反常。

Bubble

Bubble

然而,社交游戏领域目前的快速增值和之前dotcom泡沫经济的不同在于:Zynga,Facebook和Twitter等都是私人公司。理论上,私人公司之间的“联系”较少,即使某家公司迅速增值也不会对其他公司的价值产生必然影响。

随着社交游戏公司逐渐深入游戏产业,迪士尼,EA和DeNa等老牌公司也对在社交游戏领域投入了大量资金。

对此,动视(Activision)公司首席执行官Bobby Kotick在上周路透社全球媒介峰会上便提出了对社交游戏领域的谨慎关注。Kotick表示目前并没有发现进军社交游戏市场的机会。

去年,外界对社交游戏公司的投资额呈飙升趋势。EA首当其冲以3亿美元收购了PlayFish。之后,社交游戏巨头公司zynga被爆市场估值超50亿,同时迪士尼公司也以7亿6300万美元的高价收购了社交游戏工作室Playdom。

随着市场对社交游戏公司的投资态度和估值逐渐与其实际规模和产值相背离,PopCap的创意总监Jason Kapalka也表示了自己对社交游戏产业泡沫化的担心。他认为目前社交游戏领域的确十分盛行,但也因此不得不担心随着越来越多公司加入社交游戏领域会导致不必要的竞争迫使社交游戏产业迅速泡沫化,毕竟类似情况近几年来在手机,iPhone或大型多人网游等领域都有出现。但之后,Kapalka也指出并不确定社交游戏是否也会像dotcom一样突然崩溃。

斯坦福经济政策研究所研究员Alex Gould也表示部分赞同Kapalka的观点。

另外,企业家Dave McClure也建议投资者需谨慎进入社交游戏市场,但也目前社交游戏市场并没有泡沫的明显迹象。“我并不是说Quora, Foursquare, Square这些公司估值过高,但现在许多投资方对其的投资额令人惊叹。不过这些社交游戏领域的公司一般都拥有庞大的市场和可靠的创办者,因此现在的这种投资热潮也未必都是疯狂之举。”(本文为游戏邦/gamerboom.com编译,转载请注明来源:游戏邦)

Rocketing value of social firms questioned by leading investors and industry players

The extraordinary flow of money into social networks, and by extension social gaming, has led to a number of investors and analysts suggest the industry is in a bubble.

Some investors believe the hysteria surrounding social networks and gaming mimics the dot-com bust, which a decade ago shattered the illusion of invincibility among online enterprises.

“I am seeing many more unnatural acts from investors happening,” said venture capitalist Fred Wilson, having observed the market over the last year.

“I have never seen phases like this end nicely,” he was quoted by the New York Times as stating.

One clear difference between the current rush in social gaming and the dot-com bubble is that the likes of Zynga, Facebook and Twitter are privately traded, meaning – in theory – there is less unification between these firms and, if one’s valuation takes a dive, the rest won’t automatically follow.

Yet social game firms are beginning to embed themselves in the fabric of the games industry. Disney, EA and Dena are each public firms with significant revenue investments made in social games firms.

Activision CEO Bobby Kotick, speaking last week at the Reuters Global Media Summit, appeared to be cautious of the social gaming climate.

“It’s a different question assessing it as a business opportunity,” he said. “Right now we don’t see an opportunity for us to participate in that market.”

Investment in social game firms has rocketed in the last year. Just a few months after EA paid upwards of $300 million for Playfish, the Farmville owner Zynga was valued at over $5 billion, while Disney footed $763 million for social studio Playdom.

PopCap creative director Jason Kapalka recently told Develop he feared the social gaming space is becoming a bubble, with investments and valuations out of sync with the sector’s actual size and worth.

“The social gaming sector is very hot right now,” he said, “but certainly we’re worried that at some stage a lot of these things get to become a bubble, where companies start chasing things without necessarily thinking it through too closely – it seems to happen every few years, whether it’s mobile or iPhone or MMOs.”

Kapalka later claimed he “wasn’t predicting a dot-com-style collapse”.

Alex Gould, leadership scholar of the Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research, suggests that Kapalka was on to something.

“I always get a little nervous about bubbles when five different angel investors ask me to join their brand new angel funds in one week”, he said.

Dave McClure, a founding partner of 500 Startups, meanwhile suggested investors should be cautious, but said there’s no clear signs of a bust.

“I’m not saying Quora, Foursquare, Square aren’t eventually worth a lot of money, but the price to pay to get into those games is kind of amazing — $50 to $80 million?” he told the New York Times.

“These companies are in big markets with proven founders, so maybe not absolutely crazy but certainly eyebrow-raising,” he added. (Source:develop-online)


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